Anal Reprieve

Just for fun. I noticed tonite a portfolio holding, GIVN, announced something to be construed as negative on their path to greater internal diagnostics. This is a profitable company with a proprietary and leadership position in a minimally invasive and necessary diagnostic field. The stock is already significantly umdervalued IMHO. If it prints down tomorrow I am a buyer. Please do your own due diligence but I regard this as a significant buying opportunity. regards. shb

Out With The Old, In With The New

I have to say I like to see CSCO and INTC and MSFT falling apart. I have been against these names as bloated and done for years. That these names remain perennial go-to tech favorites is a major hurdle to the market going higher in my opinion. When I started in this game in 1996 those companies were the leaders but at that point were small and went up 10 and 20x. That was then, where is a $200 billion company going to go?, up and down 15%. That isn't the leadership we need for a bull run in tech, we need new companies that represent the early stage of a cycle that these names did 10 years ago. Below are my favorite areas and stocks to lead a new tech bull.

Rapid manufacture/design
Software DASTY
Printers/manufacture equip SSYS, TDSC
3D Laser Measurement FARO

New Vaccine Production
CRXL, VICL

Next Generation Surgical/Radiation Tech
TOMO, ARAY, HNSN, GIVN

Nanotechnology
NANX,UTEK

Power Efficiency/Clean Tech
ELON, OIIM, MBLX, LYTS

RFID/Wireless Transaction
ZBRA

Advanced Military Unmanned Vehicle
AVAV

Home HIV Test
OSUR

Display Tech
MVIS

This is a small sampling for the time being. Some are more speculative than others but represent a group of potentially disruptive new technologies at small cap prices and market position to lead in the coming years. Good weekend to all. These are just ideas I like and certainly no recommendation, if interested do your own due diligence please. Support some music and buy something online this weekend. Music is good for you in these rocky market times. Lamb of God?

Evening Rules and Rant

Here is rule number one; don't game events. Watching TV is retarding. These people have no idea whether the market has factored Mylie Cyrus into DIS estimates or not. I say adamantly - WHO CARES!. One the music is just awful and 2 you shouldn't be buying stocks hoping some small element of a business is not factored into earnings. What is $30 mil in ticket revs for Hannah Montana and the gang worth to a $60 billion company? I don't know; neither does anyone else. Buy stocks for long term catalysts that the market isn't considering. Since my contemporaries seem to be gaming non-events as discussed, this isn't tough. If you buy a company for longer term broader themes, a short term misstep, like taking your kids to see Hannah Montana(I sent the wife) won't matter. Second mistake I will highlight tonight is the commodity semi component supplier. SIRF is down after hours, big! Don't buy these companies, ever, as a rule. These are never long term stories. Please find me one - ZRAN, GNSS, SGTL, TRID, CRUS, PLAY(I am leaving out hundreds) and now SIRF. If you find a semiconductor company that sells into one consumer niche - DON'T BUY!!!!!. If you are trading it and have insight into the demand cycle and specific design wins, go for it. If not, there are always going to be a bunch of new sheep to be herded off to slaughter with every new consumer gadget, extrapolating infinite growth. EX. If every person on earth buys a flat panel tv multiplied by Y billion people, blah and blah and blah. NO! The end market prices of the products(flat panel, cell phones, DVD, MP3, GPS, etc. etc.) comes down so fast these component plays always end up in the garbage. Please, I challenge you to find otherwise. Couldn't help myself from ranting bout this, its a mistake made over and over again, one I have made myself, but never again. Today my portfolio held up very well. After a disastrous year last year and beginning to this one, we are heating up. I believe we have exposure to all the technology areas with the most potential at what I consider cheap prices because everyone is still infatuated with GOOG and INTC and RIMM. When we go higher its lead by a bunch of new tech and tomorrow I give it all away. Every hot new area and every company I own for exposure. Just know I change my mind a lot :) Rock and roll.

Break My Rules Buy a Semi

Heading into the weekend I have a thought or two. First,learn something from this yhoo deal. Last nite on Fastmoney the pundits were talking about GOOG suggesting it was cheaper than YHOO with the sell off after earnings. That is only a partial truth. P/E is only one measurement of value and yes on this comparison goog is cheaper. By any other metric it is much more expensive; price/book, price/revs, price/you-name-it. P/E is a simple way of trying to make all stocks equal and blanket assess valuations. It is also useless without context such as market valuation and balance sheet considerations. GOOG is pushing the limits of size for any company and trading 15x + revenues is ridiculous and the p/e is more a function of creative accounting than value. GOOG may end up being the greatest company in the world, but at these prices it has to be for the stock to go higher. It is a $150 billion company on $11 bil in current year revs. Instead of treading in these dangerous waters, let's look for opportunity where expectations are lousy and prospects good. That is where risk is diminished and upside equal or better than situations like GOOG. Everyone hates semis since INTC disappointed and as usual the market has thrown out the baby with the bath water. I generally shy away from semis as sellers of commodities but prices in some spots are just too low. Look at OIIM and UTEK. Both companies trade about 1x revs ex-cash and 1.5 x book. OIIM is a fabless semi with a huge amount of patents and great 5 year growth and is trading less than 10x forward earnings. With products for minimizing power consumption in computing and LED back lighting this company should continue to grow. UTEK sells semi cap equipment for next gen nano fabricated semi products. Trading 15x froward earnings and roughly half of that ex-cash this is a low risk play on nano, a huge area that for the meantime has been left for dead by investors. Further, when you compare valuations with these companies' larger peers both are cheap on relative valuation metrics and would make interesting acquisition candidates. I dwell where others don't to mitigate risk as there are discounts in out of favor areas as opposed to premiums like in the GOOG complex. In my opinion OIIM has a significantly better chance to double from current prices than goog and significantly less risk. Unlike GOOG where the future hope is Content being king, I say Context is king. The market uses single valuation metrics like p/e as a way to distort this reality, don't fall prey. Good weekend to all.