Monday, January 28, 2008

The Economy and Stocks to Buy Now!

Good day.
Here we go. Today the market is wavering. Is the creation of new wealth and prosperity in emerging economies enough to offset US bubble hopping(stocks to real estate to commodities and back...?). That is the question and as much as I think the US housing market is a disaster created by horrific policy; my answer is a resounding yes! In spite of everything in the mortgage markets, we will overcome and prosper. I believe we are on the cusp of a multi decade global boom led by the global proliferation of the consumer. The US is no longer in a vacuum and if some of our poorest elements are house poor(or even without) for a few years, it ain't gonna matter. The world is growing and the US continues to develop the best technology in the world, from software to medicine and everything in between and overlapping. Beyond that, the rest of the world still covets westernism and everything culturally American. Couple that with American greed and patriotism and this empire is far from crumbling. Until other societies prove they will support and endeavor massive financial and personal risk to innovate and create for the sheer benefit of wealth and recognition, The US will continue to lead. It didn't happen with Japan and it won't happen with the new challengers. The best and most innovative and therefore profitable products will continue to emerge from the US and that means our markets will go higher after we get over this housing debacle. The government will fix the housing problem because they created it. I believe not a single subprime loan is ethical. These loans were sold to people that had no concept of what they were getting into. There is a legal term 'unconscionable' meaning '
shockingly unfair or unjust', which succinctly describes these loan products. Mortgage companies behaved as predators preying on the informed and lying to them about the continued and infinite appreciation of their homes in support of any transaction. In any other business or contract negotiation all parties involved need to be properly informed and of equal position informationally to enter into a binding agreement, hence you must seek legal advise prior to signing. If you enter into a mortgage contract that you don't understand and will ruin your financial existence, no problem? Come on, Government and Wall Street got carried away and screwed this one up and they know it. Why else was Bank of America proactively seeking out troubled borrowers to restructure mortgages?, out of kindness? Please. The involved parties know this is on their head and they will fix it.

Given this, the rest of the world is set to boom for a long time and several new technologies have the potential to be disruptive and change our world. This is where I try to dwell. No MSFT or INTC for me. I believe in limitations of absolute valuation. In other words there is only so big a company can get and there are only a few $200 billion companies; so why bet on the big getting bigger when odds are against you and size is limited by the finite nature of any economy. Let's bet on companies that can grow for years without challenging for largest and most unlikely company in the world.

Digital manufacture changes the way we design and manufacture products. Software helps us design products faster and collaborate more efficiently. Here I own the leader
DASSAULT SYSTEMs (DASTY). 3D laser measurment devices for reverse engineeering and quality control, Faro Technologies (FARO). Systems for Rapid Prototyping and Digital Manufacture; Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (TDSC). I believe these Nasdaq listed companies are all good values with exceptional growth prospects going forward that are misunderstood by the broader market. Digital design and manufacture has the potential to become pervasive and embedded in our culture. I believe one day these products are as common as a ruler or 2D printer in every home and handyman's possession. At these valuations I think these are the greatest opportunities to participate in a technological revolution I have ever seen. Have a good day and good luck.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

First Post

Hello all(any echoes?)
I run a portfolio of small cap companies with market leading technology in each particular area. My goal is to identify underappreciated companies before they are over appreciated so we can make some money. I am generally contrarian and sickened by the majority of stock commentary in the media. It seems to me the majority of these 'experts' don't understand what the companies they talk about even do. I have in the past written for one of the major financial websites and now hope to continue to offer ideas on stocks and the market unfettered by traditional media's rules. Everyday I hope to comment on what I believe are opportunities and what I believe to be nonsense in the machine of the market that we should be wary of. Please contribute your thoughts, I am new to this format so if I make a cyberspace gaffe please fill me in. Let's rock.